柳华芳的blog

     上次写了一篇《百度兴，腾讯亡？》的碎文，听说腾讯XX气得快吐血，汗！何必吐血呢？本人不过是从功能体验和消息体验上批评了一下腾讯而已，不过就单纯的UI界面设计等方面腾讯还是无可挑剔的，相比之下，百度IM一出生就会是一个丑八怪，百度UI设计水平还没达到IM设计的级别。

      百度兴，并非是说百度IM兴，是百度会改变一些概念，在IM方便，百度IM的推出对广大QQ用户来说将是有一个大大的好处：柳华芳曾不惜得罪腾讯的公关MM，为网友们争取的消息体验选择权，不过柳华芳人微言轻，马化腾不在乎我的声音，不过马化腾会在乎李彦宏的声音，百度IM的唯一贡献不是自己将是多么完美，而是压迫马化腾老兄把消息体验的选择权还给QQ用户们。

     百度IM对腾讯和互联网界还有什么影响？

     第一，给腾讯压力，QQ用户将拥有选择自己客户端体验的权利，侧面帮助腾讯提高客户端体验，会影响腾讯的门户流量，对腾讯的盈利模式不会有大的触动。

     第二，百度IM恐难成西施，向来喜欢模仿的百度，这一次进军UI要求极高的IM领域，百度将雄赳赳、气昂昂地东施效颦。

     第三，互联网的方向是一切以用户为中心，中国互联网只不过是走的慢一些，但是逃不过这一规律。

     第四，搜索与社区的时代战争在中国开始了。facebook被很多人认为可能是搜索引擎的掘墓人，而马化腾同学高调标榜腾讯和facebook是一路的，战斗，战斗，小马子和小李子的战斗，one,two,three..!

十年，好漫长，又好短暂，仿佛眨眼间走过。 搜狐十年奋斗 的历史变迁，就是一部壮丽的史诗。每一寸土地上，都刻写着闪光的诗句，这部史诗的作者，正是那些 日夜辛勤工作 的 搜狐 人。

 被误读的张朝阳。从1997年回国创业开始,张朝阳一直都是媒体关注的焦点,“数字英雄”一词在中国似乎是专指张朝阳的。但是，有人说张朝阳爱做“秀”,但张朝阳认为“我之所以秀,是为了搜狐”,可谓是“我为搜狐秀”。 其实，1997年张朝阳刚从其老师-搜狐的天使尼葛洛庞帝投资的22万美元，张朝阳通过自己让公司生存， 在2000年以前联想和盈科的投资没进来时, 搜狐 总共的融资没有超过1000万美元,而那时新浪的融资是8600万加上650万,几乎是 搜狐 的十倍。所以 搜狐 花钱最少的。张朝阳带领搜狐走过了一个又一个的险滩峻岭，2008年将举起火炬!

在网页博物馆里还存储着搜狐1999年的页面，那时候搜狐是一个分类目录式搜索站点，那时候只有新闻、财经、体育、网猴、电子邮件、调查几个主要栏目。

2000年的搜狐内容已经比较丰富了，it频道也出现了

2001年的搜狐,你可以在页面上找到短信服务，

这是短信拯救了当时的中国互联网。你还可以看到右侧增加了chinaren

2004年的搜狐，此时离我们似乎很近了，这时候搜狐收购一家房产站点，有了17173游戏资讯门户。

      到这时候，我们应该加快我们的浏览速度，发扬奥运精神，看看2008年的搜狐，这时候的搜狐业务扩展的已经非常丰富了。

     互联网的进步从搜狐的导航条就可以看出来，我们的生活像搜狐一样从简单到丰富多彩，富媒体技术，web2.0理念，

我们在体验着时代的节凑，Olympic on my way!

&nbs

2008年什么最热，视频、搜索、IM、电子商务？NO!搜索是以前的热门，视频被新规限制了，IM和电子商务都不是创新了，只是业界热闹一些。在业界普遍认为facebook价值被低估的情况下，2008年最热的肯定是有中国facebook之称的校内网。

    SNS为什么持续升温？facebook为什么被认为是google之后的领导者？我们的社会已经完全进入信息大爆炸时代，我们早就不缺少信息，我们缺少的是真实的关系，而这就是校内网被看好的推动力。我们通过搜索引擎或是门户网站无法知道我们同学在吃什么菜，但是校内网可以，同时朋友也可以知道我们明天去看《长江七号》，有句话说的好：每个人都是生活的主角。

    校内网是博客吗？不是！

    校内网是一个真实的SNS，核心在于关系，是有其文化和秩序的，是熟人、朋友间的人际关系平台；而博客则是一个发布日志的平台，通常是无序的，可能是一只小猫或是小狗。所以，校内网虽然有最多的写博客的用户，但是它自身并非BSP，而是中国最大的社交网络站点。刘韧就曾在博客中提到：会写作的人太少，决大多数的博客没有阅读价值；更多的人需要校内网，而不是博客。
 
    博客的媒体性太强了，尤其是在中国，如果编辑不推荐，那么博客的访问量通常不高，草根博客通常很少人关注。之所facebook被认为比google更值钱，就因为它是基于关系的，关系在信息泛滥的时代是多么弥足珍贵的啊，校内网把真实的人联系在了一起，找老朋友、老同学，充满着人情味。我们可以在校内网享受生活，而不必像博客那样为了迎合读者费尽脑筋折腾文字，生活是真实的，生活是快乐的。

    流量有望超过百度

    在美国，facebook流量一度超过google，而在中国这种情况也将会发生，不过不是facebook，而是校内网。

    笔者今天下午一登陆校内网，发现校内网负责人许朝军的校内状态变为“movie.xiaonei.com发布了”，之前许朝军的状态曾经是校内集市发布，我不需要打电话去问许朝军太多问题，他想告诉我的，就在他的校内状态里。其实，每个校内用户都可以像许朝军那样把消息告知朋友而不需电话等挨个通知，这就是真实SNS的极大方便，你甚至可以把自己的整个生活圈朋友带到校内网，生活变得简单而有趣。
 
    目前，校内网每天上传290万张照片，还增加了好友描述，社交关系的度控制十分到位。最令人期待的是校内网可能在2008年开始逐步开放一些api，那时候肯定会出现基于校内网api的很多小公司，校内网将成为一个生态母体，很多人围绕它生活、学习、工作甚至创业。业界认为，校内网的流量很有可能百度，作为最大的sns社区，校内网在不声不响中成为互联网上最重要的站点之一。

    社交网站正在日益改变着我们使用互联网的习惯，而且，无丝毫意外，随着校内网等社交网站的普及，流量最大的网站，也已将不再是搜索引擎独享的荣耀了，校内网流量有望超越百度等主流搜索引擎（据美国统计显示，在2006年6月，社交网站已在访问比例上超越搜索引擎，成为最大的一个互联网应用）。甚至有专家认为，像facebook、校内网这样的社交网站可能是搜索引擎的终结者，因为自己的好友会把需要的信息告诉我们，而这让我们不仅想要信息来的更快点，而且更希望在我想要搜寻之前就能得到它。

沸沸扬扬的雅虎收购案在春节后依然进行并加剧着进程，微软看上去势在必得，而雅虎似乎也没有足够强悍的防卫方法，大鳄抢夺互联网的战争将持续进行着。从雅虎这样的巨头都要被收购，那么百度被大鳄收购相信不久将会被提上议程！海外上市的危险性似乎正在不断地释放着，2008年，中国互联网企业冷静面对资本的诱惑吧。

 百度是一家美资控股的企业，目前在美国上市，其市值曾经过百亿美元，远不及雅虎的446亿美元，对于大鳄群集的美国，收购百度在资本层面是一件容易的事情。如果微软收购雅虎是为了搜索引擎和广告市场，那么要占据中国互联网搜索引擎和广告市场就完全可能收购百度这一个最有价值站点，加上百度日本刚开始还没有足够市场份额，所以现在收购对于大鳄来说是一个机遇。

百度为什么股价这么高？

因为大多数美国人都把百度当作中国的google，百度在中国搜索引擎市场占据70%以上的份额，在中国打败google让美国人对百度刮目相看。不过，笔者认为百度现在的盈利状况和中国目前搜索引擎市场总量来看，百度的市值是被高估的。

百度目前的搜索结果已经落后于谷歌，竞价广告的滥用使得搜索体验越来越差，这给了对手谷歌机会，就像当年的雅虎一样。目前，百度迫于股价的压力，开展了门户策略、不断扩大广告投放机会。

柳华芳认为：百度做内容不会颠覆传统几大门户的内容，而是会从颠覆门户首页开始，从而对传统门户构成巨大杀伤力；百度的竞价策略必须尽快调整，等用户发现和注意到自己被置于广告的包围时候，那么百度的搜索结果页面和门户的内容的体验就没有本质区别了，百度应该勇敢地坚持理想，不要被股价奴役，以免伤害自己的未来；人工过多干预搜索结果并不会使结果更好，反而会让spam者不断地挑衅，最好的方式就是提高自身的技术；谷歌搜不到，百度搜得到，我亲身经历，原来是我自己的网站禁止了搜索引擎spider，所以谷歌搜不到，但是百度搜到了网站页面内容，这不是百度强大，而是说明百度强暴。

收购百度从资本上可能没有多大的问题，难题可能出现在中国政府方面，其实同样的问题也出现在雅虎收购案上：雅虎是阿里巴巴最大股东，雅虎被收购就意味着中国电子商务的领导者易主，马云都有出局的可能，中国政府必然是想保护自己的互联网产业的独立性的。百度收到中国政府的很大支持，收购最大的难度就是中国政府这一关。

中国互联网会不会遭遇资本劫持？

中国互联网的各大巨头不少都是靠外资做起来的，很多在国外上市，雅虎都可能收购，还有什么不可能的呢？中国互联网的风投会不会让中国互联网遭遇资本劫持呢？

虚拟经济的安全问题让我锁眉头。互联网经济的管理与控制是区别于传统经济的，互联网真的是被美国垄断了吗？全球化与垄断、独立、安全的关系成为我一直思索的问题，毕竟我们地球没有实现完全和平，互联网经济安全与控制是一个重要话题了。当然，十进制域名不被我认可，因为他们想法太单纯了，如果他们有能力让百度直接收录那种域名，就可行，我想百度是不会那么干的。

杨致远在致股东的信中最后说道：“This is a great company and we are moving quickly to make it even better.”笔者心中不觉地产生一阵酸楚的感觉：杨致远作为华人的骄傲，我始终充满着敬意和期待，不过作为一个独立的评论分析人，我认为雅虎的独立性是最重要的，伟大并不意味着不可颠覆，因为曾经的altavista也很伟大、netscape很伟大、DOS很伟大。

胡紫薇事件让国人重新审视价值观的问题，一个世纪大国应该能够输出价值观。其实，一个伟大的公司何尝不是的呢？谷歌的成功很大程度上取决于他们的价值观，因为笔者认为企业的价值观决定着企业的组织结构和文化。谷歌的理想主义和长尾认识成就了他们的持久的创新力和市场驱动力，而反观雅虎则是跟着屁股走、创新力低下，同时雅虎的文化与价值观也变得臃肿和迷茫，雅虎的高层的判断上总是落伍。

裁员是正确的，但是不能只是财报的原因！雅虎的结构不如谷歌更贴近网络，笔者甚至怀疑：雅虎的高层自己是否对雅虎文化的未来有清晰的构想？

杨致远与张朝阳

笔者之所以把它们放在一起，是因为雅虎的困境也曾经困扰过张朝阳，搜狐过去一年的变化有目共睹，张朝阳的选择是正确的。反观雅虎，杨致远也应该果敢些，认清形势，果断出手，如果过于忧虑，把太多精力放在为华尔街烦恼，那么雅虎就是相当危险的。

如果雅虎高层决策能力一直落后，那么雅虎根本不值400亿，笔者认为互联网公司的核心是价值观与人才，而雅虎这两方面都不具备优势，同时雅虎的产品策划与推广存在严重问题，我对杨致远说雅虎是用户滞留时间最长的网站非常怀疑。雅虎的高层似乎不知道雅虎的方向，他们推荐长尾理论但是自己没有实践，而谷歌却知道蚂蚁雄兵的道理。

收购对马云的影响

收购如果成功，杨致远未必是雅虎的CEO，那么马云也是有可能离开阿里巴巴，但是笔者认为收购对阿里集团有好处。虽然阿里是oracle的用户，但是马云的电子商务资源对于微软是可以想到的，微软有很多产品要卖。不过，刚忙完上市的马云恐怕不愿意换伙伴——一个垄断了一个时代的伙伴。

雅虎需要新形象、新口号

其实柳华芳是个很呆板的人，不过现在的年轻人都不像我那样，现在的年轻人与过去很不同，笔者有理由认为雅虎需要根据各国各年龄的社会心理来重新审视一下自己的价值观。

雅虎很伟大，但并非不可颠覆。一个女人选择男人并非看他多么雄伟，而是他是否能给她快乐。

不看历史的人，经常重复历史；沉溺于历史的人，经常被历史遗弃！

————————————————————————————————————杨致远原信：——

Yahoo has just released the following letter to shareholders outlining its reasoning for rejecting Microsoft’s offer to buy the company. In it, CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang emphasizes Yahoo’s strengths as both an **** destination and an advertising network, and argues that Yahoo is better off going it alone than combining with Microsoft. He states: “The global **** advertising market is projected to grow from $45 billion in 2007 to $75 billion in 2010. And we are moving quickly to take advantage of what we see as a unique window of time in the growth - and evolution - of this market to build market share and to create value for stockholders.”

He says that even though Yahoo is the No. 1 Web destination, his goal is to increase visits by 15 percent annually. Re-emphasizing his strategy of being the key starting point on the Web, he adds, “we are particularly excited about our growth prospects in mobile, the biggest emerging starting point in the world.” (We could have told you that). All in all, the letter is pretty much a formality without any major new arguments, but it does put Yahoo’s best face forward to its shareholders. We’re No. 1, Yang is saying, and we don’t need Microsoft. What he doesn’t explain is how Yahoo got into this pickle in the first place.

Here is the full text of the letter:

Dear Stockholders,On February 1, 2008, Microsoft made an unsolicited proposal to acquire your company. As much has been reported in the press recently, I wanted to reach out to you personally to let you know why your Board of Directors, after a careful review by Yahoo!’s management along with our financial and legal advisors, believes that Microsoft’s proposal substantially undervalues Yahoo! and is not in the best interests of our stockholders.Most importantly, I want you to know that your Board is continuously evaluating all of Yahoo!’s strategic options in the context of the rapidly evolving industry environment, and we remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all our stockholders.We have a unique combination of strengths

– Yahoo! is one of the most recognizable and admired brands in the world. We have over 500 million users (nearly 1 out of every 2 internet users worldwide). In the U.S., we are # 1 in many of the most used **** services including personalized home pages, mail, news, music, shopping and travel. Because we have leadership positions in so many indispensable **** services, users spend more time on Yahoo! sites than anywhere else ****.

– Yahoo! is an attractive partner for marketers. Yahoo! is #1 in **** display advertising, which represents 90% of the advertising inventory on the web, and we are also a leader in search marketing and a pioneer in the growing fields of mobile advertising and **** video advertising. Through Yahoo!, advertisers can now connect with consumers on our owned sites as well as those of our growing network of partners including eBay, Comcast, AT&amT, a consortium of over 600 newspapers, Forbes.com, Cars.com, WebMD and more.

– Yahoo! has the financial flexibility to execute our plans, thanks to our healthy cash balance, which exceeded $2 billion as of December 31, 2007, and our substantial operating cash flow, which we expect to grow double digits in 2009.

– Yahoo! has made important investments in our core computing infrastructure enabling us to dramatically increase the speed of our search engine updates even while handling vast and growing quantities of data.

– In addition, we have the added value of our substantial, unconsolidated investments in Japan and China. We have substantial positions in Yahoo! Japan, the leader in its market, and Alibaba, which is strongly positioned in China, a market with enormous growth potential.

These assets–our brand and its audience, our relationships with marketers, our financial strength, our technology, and our strategic investments–are the core of our value and our leadership position in the industry.

We have a huge market opportunity - and are uniquely positioned to capitalize on it

The global **** advertising market is projected to grow from $45 billion in 2007 to $75 billion in 2010. And we are moving quickly to take advantage of what we see as a unique window of time in the growth - and evolution - of this market to build market share and to create value for stockholders.

We are executing our strategy - and making headway

We have taken significant but disciplined steps to refocus our business on our objectives to become the starting point for the most consumers and the must buy for the most advertisers and enhance Yahoo!’s long-term performance.

Starting Point Objective: Our goal is to grow visits to key Yahoo! starting points and properties, where users enter the Internet, by 15% per year over the next several years. We are the most visited site in the U.S., and we continue to grow - we experienced double-digit growth in U.S. users in 2007 on our Yahoo.com home page.

In addition to traditional starting points on the PC - including our home pages, mail, My Yahoo! and search, we are particularly excited about our growth prospects in mobile, the biggest emerging starting point in the world. Globally, there are twice as many users of mobile devices as users of personal computers, and mobile advertising is projected to grow substantially in the coming years. We have an important competitive edge as the number one mobile destination in the U.S., and we are building a superior mobile experience for Yahoo! users globally so we can further capitalize on this opportunity.

Must Buy Objective: We are working to make **** advertising easier and more effective for marketers, opening up new ways for them to connect with consumers. We’ve successfully completed the global roll-out of our search marketing system, Panama, which improved the search experience for our users, boosted returns for our advertisers, and increased revenue for Yahoo!. Last year, we bought Right Media, an exchange that enables buyers and sellers of **** advertising to come together. Another 2007 acquisition, Blue Lithium, brings us best-in-class performance marketing capabilities, complementing Yahoo!’s existing offerings for advertisers. We also integrated our search advertising and display advertising sales forces, creating a one-stop shop for all of advertisers’ **** marketing needs. All of these - Panama, Right Media, Blue Lithium, and our combined sales efforts - complement and enhance Yahoo!’s existing capabilities and will make it easier for advertisers and **** publishers to buy and sell advertising ****.

We are also creating a unique and valuable network of premium websites to serve our advertisers. We are making it easier for our advertisers to provide interesting and relevant offers to our users by combining advertising space on Yahoo!’s owned sites with that from a growing group of premium partners including eBay, Comcast, AT&amT, a consortium of over 600 newspapers and many others.

As we reach more users both on our own websites and on the sites of our premium partners, and better monetize the ad space on Yahoo!’s owned and operated sites, we are striving to increase the percentage of total **** advertising demand we touch from an estimated 15% in 2007 to 20% over the next several years.

These key strategies will be enhanced by our adoption of new, more open technology platforms that will encourage the development of new applications and the involvement of third-party developers - and help enrich the user experience.

We have accomplished a great deal in a very short time - and we are focused on building this momentum

Today, Yahoo! is a faster-moving, better-organized, more nimble company than it was just a few months ago. We have redeployed our resources to drive Yahoo!’s key strategic priorities - taking important steps to streamline our organization and close down or scale back businesses that don’t support these critical growth initiatives. The fact is that we are well on our way to transforming the experiences of Yahoo!’s users, advertisers, publishers and developers - an important shift that is at the heart of our plan to create stockholder value.

I want you to know that the Yahoo! Board of Directors and management team remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all our Yahoo! stockholders. This is a great company and we are moving quickly to make it even better.

Jerry Yang

固定链接：雅虎很伟大，但并非不可颠覆！